Released:
August 04, 2008
ATV/Zogby Poll
Toss-Up! McCain 42%, Obama 41% as Undecided Voters
Increase
Obama loses support among his
strongest demographic groups
UTICA, New York – A national Associated TV/Zogby
International telephone poll of 1,011 likely voters
conducted July 31-Aug. 1 finds Republican Sen. John
McCain taking a razor-thin 42%-41% lead over Democrat
Sen. Barack Obama in the race for the U.S. presidency.
The margin between the candidates is statistically
insignificant, but demonstrates a notable turn-around
from the Reuters/Zogby poll of July 7-9 that showed
Obama ahead, 46%-36% in a four-way match-up that
included Libertarian candidate Bob Barr of Georgia and
liberal independent candidate Ralph Nader. McCain made
significant gains at Obama’s expense among some of what
had been Obama’s strongest demographic groups. For
example:
- McCain gained 20% and Obama lost 16% among
voters ages 18-29. Obama still leads that group,
49%-38%.
- Among women, McCain closed 10 points on Obama,
who still leads by a 43%-38% margin.
- Obama has lost what was an 11% lead among
Independents. He and McCain are now tied.
- Obama had some slippage among Democrats,
dropping from 83% to 74%.
- Obama’s support among single voters dropped by
19%, and he now leads McCain, 51%-37%.
- Even with African-Americans and Hispanics, Obama
shows smaller margins.
The survey results come as Obama, fresh off what had
been characterized as a triumphant tour of the Middle
East and Europe, including a speech to 200,000 Germans
in Berlin. That trip quickly became fodder for an
aggressive response ad by the McCain campaign that
questioned whether Obama’s popularity around the world
meant he was ready to lead the U.S.
Pollster John Zogby: “The McCain
camp seems to have turned lemons into lemonade. Huge
crowds and mostly favorable press reviews of Obama’s
overseas trip have been trumped by McCain’s attacks on
Obama. Loss of support for Obama among young voters may
also be due to his perceived reversals on issues they
care about, such as the war and government
eavesdropping.”
Electoral votes decide the Presidency, and this
ATV/Zogby poll gives signs that McCain is making gains
in winning key states. By region, McCain’s greatest
gains came in the Central U.S. and in the West, home to
several key battleground states. What was a narrow Obama
lead in the Central U.S. is now a 45%-36% McCain edge.
In the West, Obama’s 15% lead is gone, and McCain is now
ahead, 43%-40%.
Zogby Phone Polls |
Aug. 1 |
July 13 |
June 18 |
May 18 |
Obama |
41% |
46% |
45% |
47% |
McCain |
42% |
36% |
40% |
37% |
Barr |
2% |
3% |
3% |
4% |
Nader |
2% |
3% |
3% |
4% |
Other/Not Sure |
13% |
11% |
10% |
10% |
Catholics, who are always a critical voting bloc,
favored Obama by 11% in mid-July. Now, they favor McCain
by 15%.
Other groups where Obama’s lead has suffered include
college graduates and those with family incomes of
$25,000 - $35,000. Like the Zogby/Reuters poll, this one
included Libertarian Bob Barr and Independent Ralph
Nader. Both dropped just 1% between the two polls, with
both now at 2%.
Obama’s largest lead in Zogby phone polling since he
clinched the nomination was 10%, both in mid-May and
again in mid-July.
This survey, commissioned by Associated TV, included
1,011 likely voters and was conducted July 31-Aug. 1,
2008. The poll’s margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage
points. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.
For a complete methodological statement on this
survey, please visit:
http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.dbm?ID=1325
(8/4/2008)