The speech has two purposes. One is to
artfully evade Obama's massive
misjudgment of the "surge," which he
unequivocally opposed. Thus, while he
half-acknowledges the enormous
turnaround in Iraq, here is how he
describes its cause:
As I have said many times, our
troops have performed brilliantly in
lowering the level of violence.
General Petraeus has used new
tactics to protect the Iraqi
population. We have talked directly
to Sunni tribes that used to be
hostile to America, and supported
their fight against al Qaeda. Shiite
militias have generally respected a
cease-fire. Those are the facts, and
all Americans welcome them.
Here's a tip. When Obama begins a
sentence with "As I have said many
times," this means that he is about to
announce a totally new position that
contradicts everything he has said
before. For a little reminder of what
Obama has actually said about the surge
"many times," check out this
video clip
helpfully posted to YouTube by the
Republican National Committee.
The rest of that passage shows a
total, willful ignorance about what the
surge actually consisted of and what it
has done. He says that we "talked
directly to Sunni tribes that used to be
hostile to America." Well, we did a
little more than talk. We backed up the
Sunni "Awakening" movement with some
serious military action--which is
precisely what the extra "surge" troops
were needed for.
But the most ridiculous line is that
"Shiite militias have generally
respected a cease-fire." This Spring saw
pitched fighting between Iraqi troops
and the Iranian-backed Mahdi Army
militia--fighting that ended because the
Mahdi Army lost. Does Obama not even
watch the news?
But that is not what is most
interesting about the speech. What is
most interesting is its main purpose,
which is to make it sound as if Obama is
offering a whole new strategic direction
for the War on Terrorism--while he
declares that he would implement
precisely the policies that are already
being followed by the Bush
administration.
He says that "True success" in
Iraq--note that he has even borrowed
Bush's habit of saying "success" in
place of "victory"--"will take place
when we leave Iraq to a government that
is taking responsibility for its
future--a government that prevents
sectarian conflict, and ensures that the
al Qaeda threat which has been beaten
back by our troops does not reemerge."
But that is precisely what is already
happening. Sectarian killings in Iraq,
for example, have dropped to zero for
about ten weeks running.
And how does Obama propose to ensure
that we keep on enjoying this "true
success" in Iraq? "We can safely
redeploy our combat brigades at a pace
that would remove them in 16 months.
That would be the summer of 2010--one
year after Iraqi Security Forces will be
prepared to stand up; two years from
now, and more than seven years after the
war began. After this redeployment,
we'll keep a residual force to perform
specific missions in Iraq: targeting any
remnants of al Qaeda; protecting our
service members and diplomats; and
training and supporting Iraq's Security
Forces."
Note the part about the "residual"
combat force, whose size Obama never
specifies, which will target the
remnants of al Qaeda and train and
support Iraqi forces--which is
precisely the end result envisioned by
the Bush administration if the current
progress in Iraq continues.
But maybe the big difference is that
Obama will stick to his 16-month
timetable no matter what, while Bush and
McCain want to make withdrawal dependent
on conditions on the ground. Well no,
Obama would "make tactical adjustments"
after consulting with "commanders on the
ground and the Iraqi government."
That final flip-flop that the left
has been dreading, when Obama throws out
his commitment to a precipitous
withdrawal from Iraq? It just happened.
I wonder how long it will take them to
notice.
Obama's policies for Afghanistan and
Pakistan also read like a giant "me-too"
to the current administration. His "new
strategy" is to do more of what we're
already doing: increase troops, increase
economic aid, and try jawboning the
Pakistani government into fighting the
militants.
But the biggest piece of misdirection
in the whole speech is about Iran. One
of the centerpieces of Obama's strategy
is a plan to "secur[e] all nuclear
weapons and materials from terrorists
and rogue states." So that means
shutting down Iran's nuclear weapons
program. How does he propose to do that?
Preventing Iran from developing
nuclear weapons is a vital national
security interest of the United
States.... I commend the work of our
European allies on this important
matter, and we should be full
partners in that effort.... We
will...present a clear choice. If
you abandon your nuclear program,
support for terror, and threats to
Israel, there will be meaningful
incentives. If you refuse, then we
will ratchet up the pressure, with
stronger unilateral sanctions;
stronger multilateral sanctions in
the Security Council, and sustained
action outside the UN to isolate the
Iranian regime. That's the diplomacy
we need
So he'll cooperate closely with our
European allies to offer the Iranians
incentives to stop their nuclear program
and threaten them with sanctions and
diplomatic "isolation" if they refuse.
In other words: precisely the policy the
Bush administration has followed for the
past six years, and especially
since the summer of 2006--all with no
results.
So on these issues, there is nothing
to Obama's speech. It is a whole bunch
of pompous clichés--stuff like "it falls
to us to act with the same sense of
purpose and pragmatism as an earlier
generation, to join with friends and
partners to lead the world
anew"--wrapped around the conventional
wisdom.
And that's all there ever has been to
Barack Obama: symbolism and
grandiloquent speeches.
Robert Tracinski writes daily
commentary at
TIADaily.com.
He is the editor of The Intellectual
Activist and TIADaily.com.